Wanted to pen down my thoughts, even as the broader STI makes
its rise above the 3200 level. I was relatively active in the last 2 months given
that the market took a nose dive due to trade uncertainties, HK protests as
well as the shock from inverted yield curve.
During this period I added the following counters,
Koufu – Averaged down at the resistance line of $0.7. I had initially added at the previous resistance of $0.75. But the bearish sentiments broke the counter further down. I am looking forward to its next quarterly report to see how well its expansion is doing.
CRCT – Subscribed to more than 10x my allocation and was given full allocation. To be honest, if I had known that the upper limit for allocation was higher I would have added more. Not looking to add more at the current valuation. Will wait till next quarter to see the impact of falling RMB on the Reit’s DPU.
OCBC – Added when
the price dipped below $10.70. Small position given that I believe that it has
the highest potential to run given its small dividend payout ratio and potential
HK land – Added this
counter as the final laggard before the STI moved above 3100. I think the risk
are overblown considering that it has a diversified portfolio and the fact that
the HK protest would not go on indefinitely.
This period was also not without error.
Sembcorp Marine –
Added after news broke of its involvement in the ongoing Brazillian corruption
probe. Initial gap down was greeted by reversal in the following week, missed a
clear sign to exit before the gloom. I guess I got emotional/greedy. While the
10% loss was painful, I still consider myself lucky to cycle out of the stock
and rotate to other counters above.
Not looking to add anymore till the next downturn. Just adding
to depleted war chest.
just announced two new measures to make public housing more affordable and
accessible to more Singaporeans. First, is the raising of income ceilings of
eligible buyers for HDB and ECs, the second, is the merging of the Special Housing
Grant (SHG) and Additional Housing Grant (AHG) into the new Enhanced Housing
The first measure of raising the income ceiling makes the newer HDB projects nearer the city more affordable. Which helps us connect the dots considering that the government has made a commitment to offer more units in mature estates including the much anticipated Greater Southern Waterfront (GSW) project in the near future.
I foresee that these units will increasingly be filled with the semi-affluent sections of the population. Also, it allows the government to raise prices in these areas thereby allowing the HDB to reap the full economic benefit of these plots as well as avoiding the issue of the ballot “windfall”, where lucky bidders were able to buy under priced properties in good locations.
unintended consequence is that because of affordability issues, these areas
will become enclaves of the higher middle income and encourage stratification
of society. One could also argue that poorer households of these developments
would sell their units anyway, leaving the base case unchanged.
the second measure, given that the grant payout quantum are low compared to the
overall cost of buying homes, I don’t expect it to have too much of an impact
on the resale market.
given that BTO prices are not expected to move upwards immediately especially in
non-mature estates, I suspect the earliest beneficiary of the EHG would be the mature/resale
to be seen how much more the prices in the RCR regions are able to appreciate
given that so much of this would trickle down into the central area and already